Tue, 15 September 2020
1551: Moving Trends, Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist of the California Association of Realtors CAR
Jason Hartman speaks about the trends that come from coasts, specifically California. Zillow shows 2 million renters will become homeowners, and U-Haul has metrics that lead us to believe that more people are leaving NYC. What does this mean for investors in stable, linear markets?
Jason Hartman speaks with Leslie Appleton-Young, vice-president and chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. Leslie brings several charts and graphs to the conversation to share some staggering movement in California's real estate. In January, 2020 was shaping up to be a knock out year, but due to the Coronavirus pandemic, we are now looking at best for "a quick recovery." Leslie and Jason draw correlations between the 2008 recession and recovery to the recent, seemingly, self-imposed recession.
[2:40] Why do you keep talking about California?
[7:10] The water theory of investing explained.
[10:00] According to Zillow, 2 million people are leaving their rented homes in expensive markets and purchasing homes in more affordable areas thanks to the "work from home" movement since COVID-19.
[12:45] Discussing money vs. currency
[14:30] Experimenting with U-Haul pricing.
[17:00] What's the COVID-19 impact on global airport revenue?
[26:30] Jason and Leslie discuss predictions based on the Q2 hit in 2020, ranging from a 25% - 42% decline.
[28:00] The buy-side of real estate is doing well, likely because of record-low interest rates, more space needed for home offices, and more space desired in quarantine times.
[34:30] In January, the 2020 expectation was a great year based on some standard metrics.
[35:20] We have not had a breakout market since the 2008 recession due to income and affordability restraints.
[38:00] The virus and the government's response are two major contributing factors to set the tone for sellers and the real estate market's recovery.